Vestnik MGSU 11/2017 Volume 12
  • Geraskina Inna Nikolaevna - Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (SPSUACE) Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Management Organization, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (SPSUACE), 4 2nd Krasnoarmeiskaya str., Saint-Petersburg, 190005, Russian Federation.
  • Zatonskiy Andrey Vladimirovich - Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch (BB PNRPU) Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Automation of Technological Processes, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch (BB PNRPU), 7 Telmana str., Berezniki, Perm oblast, 1618404.

Pages 1229-1239

Subject: the results of the study are particularly relevant in the modern system of cyclical crisis generated by the change of Kondratieff’s long waves of economic development and technological structures. From the point of view of synergetics, these processes have the ability to trigger a new order having spontaneous transformation due to endogenous factors. Qualitatively predictable fluctuations in the socio-economic environment and management may lead to self-organization and sustainable development of the economic system. Construction and investment activity of Russia in the majority of cases was investigated by economists without a detailed understanding of system characteristics, inherent properties and laws, which are identified from the results of economic-mathematical modeling. Research objectives: 1. Timely and qualitative prediction of moments of crisis in the investment and construction activities of Russia; 2. Modeling of management activities for the purpose of transitioning to the desired path of development of economic system; 3. Creation of a model that is simple enough for practical use by economists and the use of public data sets in it; studying influence of the bifurcation diagram at a certain time and bypassing the critical points of the system that lead to undesirable outcome. Materials and methods: approximation of the statistical data sets, regression analysis, phase analysis, differential modeling. Results: The authors developed a mathematical model that allows us to use statistical data on investment and construction activities and accurately forecast the chances of recession of the system, and also identify the sensitivity of order parameters to the dynamics of control variables, bifurcation states and behavior of the object under certain management conditions. Conclusions: the paper presents an approach to modeling and forecasting the trends of development of complex cyclic and stochastic subsystem of the national economy - investment and construction activities. We developed economic-mathematical model based on differential equation of the second order, allowing us to use statistical data and predict behavior of the system depending on management actions. We identified the dynamics of the impact of control variables on the order parameter of the economic system under study in various time periods. The obtained results should be used in strategic planning and management of innovative development of investment and construction activities of Russia.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2017.11.1229-1239



Vestnik MGSU 8/2012
  • Galay Boris Fedorovich - North Caucasian Federal University Professor, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogy Sciences, North Caucasian Federal University, 2 prospekt Kulakova, Stavropol, 355029, Russian Federation; This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
  • Chernov Yuriy Konstantinovich - Research and Production Centre of Engineering Geology Professor, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical; Sciences, Research and Production Centre of Engineering Geology, 185 Dzerzhinskogo st., Stavropol, 355003, Russian Federation; This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
  • Chernov Andrey Yurevich - North Caucasian Federal University Assistant Lecturer, Department of Construction, North Caucasian Federal University, 2 prospekt Kulakova, Stavropol, 355029, Russian Federation; This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Pages 154 - 168

Seismicity of any territory produces a significant impact on human beings, micro-organisms,
animals and plants, i.e. the biota. In seismically active areas, earthquake-resistant construction is
an important geo-ecological factor and one of principal methods of protection against the threat of
earthquakes. The efficiency of earthquake-resistant construction is largely determined by the accuracy
of predictions, potential seismic effects of earthquakes, and additional seismic loads on buildings
and structures. Therefore, valid and reliable assessment of the seismic hazard and seismic
risks can become an integral part of geo-ecological monitoring undertakings and risk assessments.
Application of advanced probabilistic technologies in the design and maintenance of structures may
increase the accuracy of projections of dangerous seismic loads to optimize the losses caused by
the negative impact of earthquakes in compliance with the pre-set dependence between safety,
economic efficiency and practicability patterns.
Probabilistic technologies, including passive constituents of the general method of geo-ecological
protection, have been tested in Central Ciscaucasia. The results of assessments of seismic
hazards and risks in various engineering and seismological conditions of Stavropol, Krasnodar,
Pyatigorsk, Kavkazskaya completed for structures of various degrees of responsibility are represented
in the article.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2012.8.154 - 168

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