Вестник МГСУ 11/2017 Том 12
  • Geraskina Inna Nikolaevna - Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (SPSUACE) Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Management Organization, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (SPSUACE), 4 2nd Krasnoarmeiskaya str., Saint-Petersburg, 190005, Russian Federation.
  • Zatonskiy Andrey Vladimirovich - Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch (BB PNRPU) Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Automation of Technological Processes, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch (BB PNRPU), 7 Telmana str., Berezniki, Perm oblast, 1618404.

Страницы 1229-1239

Subject: the results of the study are particularly relevant in the modern system of cyclical crisis generated by the change of Kondratieff’s long waves of economic development and technological structures. From the point of view of synergetics, these processes have the ability to trigger a new order having spontaneous transformation due to endogenous factors. Qualitatively predictable fluctuations in the socio-economic environment and management may lead to self-organization and sustainable development of the economic system. Construction and investment activity of Russia in the majority of cases was investigated by economists without a detailed understanding of system characteristics, inherent properties and laws, which are identified from the results of economic-mathematical modeling. Research objectives: 1. Timely and qualitative prediction of moments of crisis in the investment and construction activities of Russia; 2. Modeling of management activities for the purpose of transitioning to the desired path of development of economic system; 3. Creation of a model that is simple enough for practical use by economists and the use of public data sets in it; studying influence of the bifurcation diagram at a certain time and bypassing the critical points of the system that lead to undesirable outcome. Materials and methods: approximation of the statistical data sets, regression analysis, phase analysis, differential modeling. Results: The authors developed a mathematical model that allows us to use statistical data on investment and construction activities and accurately forecast the chances of recession of the system, and also identify the sensitivity of order parameters to the dynamics of control variables, bifurcation states and behavior of the object under certain management conditions. Conclusions: the paper presents an approach to modeling and forecasting the trends of development of complex cyclic and stochastic subsystem of the national economy - investment and construction activities. We developed economic-mathematical model based on differential equation of the second order, allowing us to use statistical data and predict behavior of the system depending on management actions. We identified the dynamics of the impact of control variables on the order parameter of the economic system under study in various time periods. The obtained results should be used in strategic planning and management of innovative development of investment and construction activities of Russia.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2017.11.1229-1239

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Вестник МГСУ 3/2016
  • Yas’kova Natal’ya Yur’evna - Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University) (MGSU) Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Economy and Management in the Construction, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University) (MGSU), 26 Yaroslavskoe shosse, Moscow, 129337, Russian Federation; Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript .

Страницы 144-151

The article focuses on clarifying the content characteristics of the methodological requirements to factorial analysis performance. The author associates its changes with consideration of the analysis of inter-regional, multi-sectoral and foreign-economic contexts of development in the logic, with the assessment of variability of external and internal environment, with the need to localize the factor impact in time. The valid analysis is also impossible without account for the interaction of external and internal factors distributed according to the spheres of influence: the production sphere and the sphere of consumption. This will enable to create a long-term advantage of all the structural elements of the national economy. The increasing importance of the construction in the structuring of living environment increases the importance of institutional factors and of the assessment of responsibility degree of all the hierarchical elements of the construction industry.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2016.3.144-151

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