MODELING TRENDS OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Вестник МГСУ 11/2017 Том 12
  • Geraskina Inna Nikolaevna - Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (SPSUACE) Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Management Organization, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (SPSUACE), 4 2nd Krasnoarmeiskaya str., Saint-Petersburg, 190005, Russian Federation.
  • Zatonskiy Andrey Vladimirovich - Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch (BB PNRPU) Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Automation of Technological Processes, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch (BB PNRPU), 7 Telmana str., Berezniki, Perm oblast, 1618404.

Страницы 1229-1239

Subject: the results of the study are particularly relevant in the modern system of cyclical crisis generated by the change of Kondratieff’s long waves of economic development and technological structures. From the point of view of synergetics, these processes have the ability to trigger a new order having spontaneous transformation due to endogenous factors. Qualitatively predictable fluctuations in the socio-economic environment and management may lead to self-organization and sustainable development of the economic system. Construction and investment activity of Russia in the majority of cases was investigated by economists without a detailed understanding of system characteristics, inherent properties and laws, which are identified from the results of economic-mathematical modeling. Research objectives: 1. Timely and qualitative prediction of moments of crisis in the investment and construction activities of Russia; 2. Modeling of management activities for the purpose of transitioning to the desired path of development of economic system; 3. Creation of a model that is simple enough for practical use by economists and the use of public data sets in it; studying influence of the bifurcation diagram at a certain time and bypassing the critical points of the system that lead to undesirable outcome. Materials and methods: approximation of the statistical data sets, regression analysis, phase analysis, differential modeling. Results: The authors developed a mathematical model that allows us to use statistical data on investment and construction activities and accurately forecast the chances of recession of the system, and also identify the sensitivity of order parameters to the dynamics of control variables, bifurcation states and behavior of the object under certain management conditions. Conclusions: the paper presents an approach to modeling and forecasting the trends of development of complex cyclic and stochastic subsystem of the national economy - investment and construction activities. We developed economic-mathematical model based on differential equation of the second order, allowing us to use statistical data and predict behavior of the system depending on management actions. We identified the dynamics of the impact of control variables on the order parameter of the economic system under study in various time periods. The obtained results should be used in strategic planning and management of innovative development of investment and construction activities of Russia.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2017.11.1229-1239

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CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT: ITS GOAL AND CONDITIONS OF ITS EFFICIENCY

Вестник МГСУ 5/2012
  • Ivanov Andrey Vladimirovich - Member of the Yaroslavl Interregional Bar Candidate of Legal Sciences, legal counsel +7 (8485) 72-80-13, Member of the Yaroslavl Interregional Bar, 30 Ushinskogo st., Yaroslavl', 150000, Russian Federation.

Страницы 181 - 186

The author of the article argues that the Russian construction industry is in need of an effective management system. The essence of the potential management system is that the management impact, irrespective of its origin, must be recognized by individuals as a deliberate need that will bring them particular economic benefits.
Management of the construction industry as one of the most important constituents of the real economy may turn efficient in the event that it is in control of its production, real property and investment constituents in both, so to say, "horizontal" and "vertical" directions. Investment relations run through principal construction operations and any related activities; therefore, they must be represented in the functional responsibilities of the Ministry of Regional Development that is in control of the construction industry.
The construction market accommodates various legal entities. Most of them are controlled by co-owners whose work is under the control of management partners. It is essential that any economic levers that they possess are not predominant. It is vital for any decisions that they propose to be supported by other co-owners (or their majority). And this is feasible in the event of good business relations between the parties.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2012.5.181 - 186

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  1. Adizez I.K. Ideal’nyy rukovoditel’. Pochemu im nel’zya stat’ i chto iz etogo sleduet? [Perfect Manager. Why Is It Impossible to Become the One and What Does This Imply?] Moscow, Alpina Publ., 2010, p. 79.
  2. Andreev V.K. Sootvetstvuet li Kontseptsiya razvitiya grazhdanskogo zakonodatel’stva po-trebnostyam rossiyskogo obshchestva? [Does the Development Concept of the Civil Legislation Meet the Needs of the Russian Society?]. Khozyaystvo i pravo [Economy and Law]. 2010, no. 4, pp. 24.
  3. Utka V.I. Doveritel’noe upravlenie nedvizhimym imushchestvom: minimizatsiya riskov vladeniya aktivami [Investment Management of Real Estate: Minimization of Risks Associated with the Process of Holding Assets]. Zakonodatel’stvo i ekonomika [Legislation and Economics]. 2009, no. 3, p. 9.
  4. Zinkovskiy A.N. Formirovanie investitsionnogo portfelya developerskikh organizatsiy [Formation of the Investment Portfolio of Development Organizations]. Ekonomika stroitel’stva [Construction Economics]. 2009, no. 1, p. 93.
  5. Livshits V., Shevtsov A. Kakikh oshibok sleduet izbegat’ pri otsenke investitsionnykh proektov s uchastiem gosudarstva? [What Mistakes Should Be Avoided in the Assessment of Investment Projects That Have a State Shareholding?] Voprosy ekonomiki [Issues of Economics]. 2011, no. 9, p. 82.
  6. Yastrebov A.V. Metodologiya strategicheskogo planirovaniya investitsionno-stroitel’noy (developerskoy) deyatel’nosti [Methodology of Strategic Planning of Investment and Construction (Development) Activities]. St.Petersburg, 2010.

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METHODS OF ENHANCING THE INVESTMENT APPEAL OF THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN

Вестник МГСУ 8/2012
  • Mubarakzyanova Aliya Ravilevna - Kazan State Unniversity of Architecture and Civil Engineering Candidate of Economics, Assistant Lecturer, Department of Urban Economics and Management, Kazan State Unniversity of Architecture and Civil Engineering, 1 Zelenaya st., Building 4, Kazan, 420043, Russian Federation; Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript .

Страницы 207 - 2013

According to the author, the Republic of Tatarstan is included into the pool of successfully
developing regions of the Russian Federation, due to its impressive innovative development successes.
Towards this end, transformations of the local economy and legislation have been completed.
Development of the innovative infrastructure is a core constituent of further development and
improvement of the scientific, industrial and business environment of the republic. The programme
of innovative activities is successfully implemented in the Republic of Tatarstan. It incorporates a
network of interconnected subsystems that represent a legislative and investment base for further
development and expansion of the regional economy. Arrangement of conditions designated to assure
more intensive inflow of investments into knowledge-intensive industries will undoubtedly promote
transformation of results of scientific researches into new or advanced products and technologies.
The top-priority objectives of the investment policy assumed by the local authorities include the
restructuring of the local industry, improvement of its competitive strengths and provision of proven
benefits to international investors.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2012.8.207 - 2013

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  8. Belous T. Pryamye inostrannye investitsii v Rossii: plyusy i minusy [Direct Foreign Investments in Russia: Pluses and Minuses]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [The World Economy and International Relations]. 2003, no. 9, pp. 60—66.
  9. Yudanov A.Yu. Konkurentsiya: teoriya i praktika [Competition: Theory and Practice]. Moscow, Tandem Publ., GNOM-PRESS Publ., 1998, 467 p.
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  12. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po formirovaniyu kontseptsii sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya munitsipal’nogo obrazovaniya [Methodical Recommendations concerning Development of the Concept of Social and Economic Development of the Municipality]. Moscow, Munitsipal’naya vlast’ Publ., 2000.
  13. Kovalev V.V., Ivanov V.V., Lyalina V.A. Investitsii [Investments]. Moscow, Prospekt Publ., 2005, 440 p.
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  16. Web site: Investitsii Rossii [Investments of Russia]. Available at: http://www.investmentrussia.ru. Date of access: 19.06.2011.

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Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

Вестник МГСУ 12/2015
  • Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich - St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU) Candidate of Technical Sciences, director, Educational and Scientific Center “Monitoring and Rehabilitation of Natural Systems, St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU), 29 Politekhnicheskaya str., 195251, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation.

Страницы 136-146

Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2015.12.136-146

Библиографический список
  1. Pukhkal V., Murgul V., Garifullin M. Reconstruction of Buildings with a Superstructure Mansard: Option to Reduce Energy Intensity of Buildings. Procedia Engineering. 2015, vol. 117, pp. 629—632. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.223.
  2. Pukhkal V., Vatin N., Murgul V. Central Ventilation System with Heat Recovery as One of Measures to Upgrade Energy Efficiency of Historic Buildings. Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2014, vol. 633—634, pp. 1077—1081. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.633-634.1077.
  3. Vatin N., Nemova D., Ibraeva Y., Tarasevskii P. Development of Energy-Saving Measures for the Multi-Story Apartment Buildings. Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2015, vol. 725—726, pp. 1408—1416. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.725-726.1408.
  4. Murgul V., Vuksanovic D., Vatin N., Pukhkal V. The Use of Decentralized Ventilation Systems with Heat Recovery in the Historical Buildings of St. Petersburg. Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2014, vol. 635—637, pp. 370—376. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.635-637.370.
  5. Murgul V., Vuksanovic D., Vatin N., Pukhkal V. Decentralized Ventilation Systems with Exhaust Air Heat Recovery in the Case of Residential Buildings. Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2014, vol. 680, pp. 524—528. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.680.524.
  6. Aronova E., Radovic G., Murgul V., Vatin N. Solar Power Opportunities in Northern Cities (Case Study of Saint-Petersburg). Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2014, vol. 587—589, pp. 348—354. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.587-589.348.
  7. Kovalev I.N. Ob okupaemosti i rentabel’nosti dolgosrochnykh investitsiy [On Payback and Profitability of Permanent Investments]. Energosberezhenie [Energy Saving]. 2014, no. 6, pp. 14—16. (In Russian)
  8. Kovalev I.N. Ratsional’nye resheniya pri ekonomicheskom obosnovanii teplozashchity zdaniy [Rational Solutions in Economic Justification of Thermal Protection of Buildings]. Energosberezhenie [Energy Saving]. 2014, no. 8, pp. 14—19. (In Russian)
  9. Zhukov A.D., Bessonov I.V., Sapelin A.N., Bobrova E.Yu. Teplozashchitnye kachestva sten [Thermal Insulation Properties of Walls]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2014, no. 5, pp. 70—77. (In Russian)
  10. Rumyantsev B.M., Zhukov A.D., Smirnova T.V. Energeticheskaya effektivnost’ i metodologiya sozdaniya teploizolyatsionnykh materialov [Energy Efficiency and Methods of Creating Heat-Insulating Materials]. Internet-Vestnik VolgGASU. Seriya : Politematicheskaya [Internet Journal of Volgograd State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering. Multi-Topic Series]. 2014, no. 4 (35), article. 3. Available at: http://vestnik.vgasu.ru/attachments/3RumyantsevZhukovSmirnova.pdf. (In Russian)
  11. Rumyantsev B.M., Zhukov A.D. Teploizolyatsiya i sovremennye stroitel’nye sistemy [Heat Insulation and Modern Construction Systems]. Krovel’nye i izolyatsionnye materialy [Roofing and Insulation Materials]. 2013, no. 6, pp. 11—13. (In Russian)
  12. Rumyantsev B.M., Zhukov A.D., Smirnova T.V. Teploprovodnost’ vysokoporistykh materialov [Thermal Conductivity of Highly Porous Materials]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2012, no. 3, pp. 108—114. (In Russian)
  13. Zhukov A.D. Sistemy ventiliruemykh fasadov [Systems of Ventilated Facades]. Stroitel’stvo: nauka i obrazovanie [Construction: Science and Education]. 2012, no. 1, article 3. Available at: http://www.nso-journal.ru/index.php/sno/pages/view/01-2012. (In Russian)
  14. Zhukov A.D., Chugunkov A.V., Zhukova E.A. Sistemy fasadnoy otdelki s utepleniem [System of Faсade Finishing with Heat Insulation]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2011, no. 1—2, pp. 279—283. (In Russian)
  15. Gagarin V.G., Pastushkov P.P. Ob otsenke energeticheskoy effektivnosti energosberegayushchikh meropriyatiy [On Evaluating Energy Efficiency of Energy Saving Measures]. Inzhenernye sistemy. AVOK Severo-Zapad [Engineering Systems. AVOK North-West]. 2014, no. 2, pp. 26—29. (In Russian)
  16. Gagarin V.G., Pastushkov P.P. Kolichestvennaya otsenka energoeffektivnosti energosberegayushchikh meropriyatiy [Quantitative Assessment of Energy Efficiency of Energy Saving Measures]. Stroitel’nye materialy [Construction Materials]. 2013, no. 6, pp. 7—9. (In Russian)
  17. Gorshkov A.S. Inzhenernye sistemy. Rukovodstvo po proektirovaniyu, stroitel’stvu i rekonstruktsii zdaniy s nizkim potrebleniem energii [Engineering Systems. Manual on Design, Construction and Reconstruction of Buildings with Low Energy Consumption]. Saint Petersburg, Izdatel’stvo Politekhnicheskogo universiteta Publ., 2013, 162 p. (In Russian)
  18. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po sostavleniyu tekhniko-ekonomicheskikh obosnovaniy dlya energosberegayushchikh meropriyatiy (dopolnenie) [Guidelines on Technical and Economic Justification for Energy Saving Measures (Addendum). Minsk, 2008, 31 p. (In Russian)
  19. Vasil’ev G.P., editor. Prakticheskoe posobie po povysheniyu energeticheskoy effektivnosti mnogokvartirnykh domov (MKD) pri kapital’nom remonte : v 9 tomakh [Practical Guide on Increasing Energy Efficiency of Multiflat Buildings during Major Repairs : in 9 Volumes]. Moscow, OAO «INSOLAR-INVEST» Publ., 2015, vol. 1, 89 p. (In Russian)
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  22. Nemova D.V., Gorshkov A.S., Vatin N.I., Kashabin A.V., Tseytin D.N., Rymkevich P.P. Tekhniko-ekonomicheskoe obosnovanie po utepleniyu naruzhnykh sten mnogokvartirnogo zhilogo zdaniya s ustroystvom ventiliruemogo fasada [Technical and Economic Justification of Heat Insulation of External Walls of a Residential Apartment Building with Ventilated Faсade System]. Stroitel’stvo unikal’nykh zdaniy i sooruzheniy [Construction of Unique Buildings and Structures]. 2014, no. 11 (26), pp. 70—84. (In Russian)
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Risk-based management of an investment project that contemplates reproduction of real estate

Вестник МГСУ 9/2012
  • Trukhina Natalya Igorevna - Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (MGSU) Doctor of Economics, Professor, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (MGSU), 26 Yaroslavskoe shosse, Moscow, 129337, Russian Federation; Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript .
  • Chernyshikhina Irina Ivanovna - Voronezh State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (Voronezh GASU) postgraduate student, Voronezh State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (Voronezh GASU), 84 Dvadtsatiletiya oktyabrya st., Voronezh, 394006, Russian Federation; Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript .

Страницы 227 - 233

Making investments into projects that contemplate reconstruction and renovation of residential
housing is always accompanied by particular risks. Risky investments are highly profitable while
low-risk investments have a low profit margin. The task of an investor is reduced to identification of
the most desirable "risk income" in the course of the due diligence of a specific investment project.
The authors present a formal approach to the management of a real estate investment project
with account for the risks that may arise in the course of its development and implementation. We
consider passive and proactive types of investment control. The problem of proactive management
represents projecting potential investment project development patterns, ongoing monitoring
of the market situation, involvement of profit generating assets, disposal of low-profit assets. The
passive type of management involves compilation of a well-balanced mix of investment operations
that contemplates a pre-set level of risk (for example, through reasonable diversifi cation) within an
extensive period of time.
Particular attention is driven to the optimal choice of an investment project based on the rate
of return and risks. The profitability represents an average value, while the risk is identified by using
the method of dispersion. Optimization of investment projects is performed on the basis of the
profi tability-to-risk ratio. The main feature of this method is that the limits of an admissible risk aren't
specified there, and the extent of risk correlates with the amount of potential revenues to be generated.
Thus, we believe that it is possible to derive an obvious decision-making formula on the basis
of certain assumptions.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2012.9.227 - 233

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  1. Ozerov E.S. Ekonomika i menedzhment nedvizhimosti [Economics and Management of Real Estate]. St.Petersburg, MKS Publ., 2003. 422 p.
  2. Grabovyy P.G., edited by. Upravlenie riskami v nedvizhimosti [Risk Management in the Real Estate Sector]. Moscow, Real proekt Publ., 2007. 424 p.
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  5. Krylov E.I. Analiz effektivnosti investitsionnoy i innovatsionnoy deyatel’nosti predpriyatiya [Analysis of Efficiency of Investment and Innovative Activities of an Enterprise]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ., 2001. 384 p.
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  7. Fal’tsman V.K. Otsenka investitsionnykh proektov [Assessment of Investment Projects]. Moscow, TEIS Publ., 1999.
  8. Tarasevich E.I. Finansirovanie investitsiy v nedvizhimost’ [Investment Funding of Real Estate]. St.Petersburg, SpbGTU Publ., 1996. 240 p.
  9. Trukhina N.I. Nauchnye aspekty upravleniya ob”ektami nedvizhimosti v zhilishchnoy sfere [Scientific Aspects of Management of Items of Housing]. Voronezh, VGU Publ., 2008.
  10. Litvak B.G. Ekspertnye otsenki i prinyatie resheniy [Expert Opinions and Decision-making]. Moscow, Patent Publ., 1996.

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